Markets

The panel against the market

Per-market metrics across all models. Here "Panel" refers to the aggregation of models.

The spread behind each estimate

Crosses mark the market's midpoint at snapshot time, the blue lines represent the model probability spreads with 1 line per avg forecast.

Noise against distance from the market

Correlation between disagreement with market and overall noise. Note models do not see the market prices explicitly.

Questions with the highest noise

Every question

Panel-level odds and noise compared to market. Click any heading to sort.